Electricity at the Ballot BoX

Electricity prices were on the ballot in several states yesterday. Democrat wins of governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey, and a sweep of public service commission races in Georgia, are adding to the sense energy issues – particularly electricity prices – will be center stage in the midterms.

Ratepayers are frustrated—and rightfully so. Residential electricity prices jumped 27% from 2019 through 2024 and they’re likely to continue their upward trajectory. New price increases are already baked in as spending on energy infrastructure continues to rise, power demand soars and natural gas prices appear to be on an upward trajectory.

A year ago, the Henry Hub price for natural gas was $2 per million BTU. Today it’s $3 and the U.S. Energy Information Administration sees the price approaching $4 in 2026. Some banks are forecasting an even steeper climb. Morgan Stanley sees natural gas prices eclipsing $5 next year on the back of surging export demand.

But for all the political focus now on electricity prices, grid reliability is lurking as the gravely overshadowed crisis now on our doorstep.

A Winter Grid Crisis?

Winter is coming and our power supply is already teetering on the edge of catastrophe. Cold snaps and polar vortexes are a certainty and keeping the power flowing and homes warm is a matter of life or death.

The nation’s reliability regulators couldn’t be clearer about the danger we now face.

Jim Robb, president of the North American Electricity Reliability Corp., the nation’s reliability watchdog, recently called the nation’s grid reliability a “five-alarm fire.”

David Rosner, a member of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), echoed Robb’s remarks, saying, “I see our grid as needing every single megawatt, every single electron and every single molecule we can get to meet demand on those peak days and peak hours.”

And Mark Christie, the recently departed FERC Chairman, ended his tenure with the following warning: “The reliability threat is not on the future horizon. It is actually here now.”

The shape of the political focus on electricity could change overnight should voters face blackouts this winter during a deep freeze. A repeat of the Winter Storm Uri catastrophe in Texas in 2021 that left millions in the dark and 246 people dead is exactly the kind of event regulators fear. There have been multiple near misses in the Midwest and on the East Coast since.

The Trump administration is focused on the danger and working diligently to reinforce the grid. Halting the loss of essential dispatchable generating capacity is top of the agenda—and for good reason.

Again and again, when power supplies have been pushed to the limit during bitter cold, it’s dispatchable generation – namely coal power – that has come to the rescue to keep the lights on and homes warm.

During the polar vortex in January 2025 that resulted in the highest and second-highest electricity demand levels on record for the states impacted stretching from the Great Plains to the Southeast and up to New England, coal power was irreplaceable.

Capacity factors for the coal fleet soared above 80% nationally as wind and solar power declined from adverse weather conditions. Of the 150 gigawatts of additional power needed to meet demand – enough to power 100 million homes – approximately 70% came from coal, natural gas and oil power plants.

We remain one winter blackout away from a potentially decisive energy issue at the ballot box. Rising electricity prices are an emerging affordability crisis but grid reliability is the crisis already staring us in the face.